A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
